Sportsbook Operator: Jays’ Win Would Be Our Single Biggest Event Loss Ever
Posted on: October 31, 2025, 11:46h.
Last updated on: October 31, 2025, 06:59h.
- The Toronto Blue Jays are the betting favorites to win World Series, but underdogs for Game 6
- Guerrero Jr. jumps ahead of Ohtani in MVP odds
- Yamamoto, Game 2 winner, looks for repeat performance tonight
The Toronto Blue Jays are on the cusp of their first World Series win in over 30 years, on Halloween night, don’t you know, with the city’s energy about to explode on a level not seen since the Raptors won the NBA title in 2019. Game 6 goes tonight at 8 pm EST, with Kevin Gausman up against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who hamstrung the Blue Jays in Game 2’s 5-1 Dodgers win.
Ticket prices for Friday night’s game at Roger’s Center are unworldly. Outfield District resale tickets are going for $1,666 per on Ticketmaster. A ticket in Section 511 is going for $2,261, while a ticket in Section 19, Row 1 is going for $11,106.
Any concerns about television ratings with a Canadian team playing in the Fall Classic have been minimized. Game 4 on Tuesday averaged 14.81 million US viewers on Fox, Fox Deportes, and streaming, according to Nielsen, making it the most-watched game of this year’s World Series and the second-most viewed Game 4 since 2018.
People in Canada are watching in droves and boosting ratings, and people in Japan are watching too, with Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the Dodgers’ roster.
How Does Betting Look for Game 6?
MVP futures have been shifting after Games 4 and 5 in Los Angeles, where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had two big home runs, including a bomb off Dodgers starting pitcher Ohtani in Game 4.
In Game 6 headlines on Friday, it appears that George Springer will be back in the Blue Jays’ lineup after sitting out Games 4 and 5 with strained muscles on his right side. Jays’ manager John Schneider said that the 36-year-old Springer was close to playing Game 5 Wednesday night, which the Jays won 6-1.
It’s all hands on deck for the Dodgers, looking for any way possible to get Ohtani, the game’s greatest player, into the lineup more. Manager Dave Roberts is considering using Ohtani as an opener or as an outfielder if the Dodgers force a Game 7 on Saturday. Ohtani threw 93 pitches in Wednesday’s 6-2 loss.
Single Biggest Event Loss
In Canada, according to a source, there’s no two-way betting action. Bettors up here are hard on the Jays.
A Jays’ World Series win “would be our single biggest event loss, ever,” said one Ontario operator on Friday morning.
“A Jays’ win tonight, or tomorrow for Game 7, and they get crushed. Don’t underestimate the patriotic, the stick-it-to-the-US-during-tariff-times angle, either, as jet fuel for betting on the home team,” said Phil Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction, and an industry sports betting consultant.
The Blue Jays are now -240 to win the series, but +125 to win Friday’s game, which shows a tip of the respect hat to Yamamoto.
Mountain of Same Game Parlays
There are a number of same-game parlays to sift through on Friday, Gray said, adding that he expects some books to be sitting on some “hefty” liabilities for some of those if any of them hit.
“Some value [that] stands out to me is [Kevin] Gausman 6 K’s +140, 7 K’s +260,” said Gray. “Yamamoto’s count doesn’t get to plus money until 7k’s +100. If Springer is playing, +470 HR – his status may be hindered somewhat, but that stands out,” Gray added.
Guerrero Jr. Shortest Odds for MVP
It’s in the World Series MVP Futures that you see some of the most interesting movement over the past few days. At DraftKings, Guerrero, with two massive home runs at Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles in Games 4 and 5, now sits at -205, with Ohtani at +230 (Game 5 winning pitcher, and rookie, Trey Yesavage, is +5000).
“The US books need the Blue Jays to win the World Series. The Canadian books need the Dodgers,” said Gray.
Huge Acquisition Period for Canadian Books
A potential massive loss could be balanced out a little by the fact that this has been a huge acquisition period for Canadian sportsbooks, said Gray, who notes that many first-time bettors have been getting in on the action.
“Compounding the cumulative loss potential is [that] the Jays have been dogs all the way with some hefty +money prices on them getting hammered,” he said. “World Series outright today is now the first time they have been the favorite.”
What are Sportsbook Traders Saying?
“Before the World Series began, the Blue Jays winning it all was a good outcome for the sportsbook. Toronto is still the preferred winner, but we wouldn’t mind seeing a Game 7,” said BetMGM Trading Manager Seamus Magee.
As of Friday morning at BetMGM, the most prop bets were:
- Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Home runs +400
- Ohtani Over 0.5 Home runs +195
- Alejandro Kirk Over 0.5 Home runs +700
- Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts +100,
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 18.5 Pitcher outs -149.
A scan of some of the other lines this morning shows:
- The Jays on the FanDuel moneyline are +120
- The Dodgers -142, with the RL
- Dodgers -1.5 (+114), Jays +1.5 (-134), and the O/U 7.5 (-114 on the O, -106 on the U).
At ESPN BET, the moneyline is Jays +115, the Dodgers -135, with the RL Dodgers -1.5 (+115), Jays +1.5 (-135), and the O/U 7.5 (-115 on the O, -105 on the U).
Ontario Bettors Riding the Blue Jays
According to DraftKings, Ontario bettors remain far more confident in the Blue Jays than bettors elsewhere on the platform heading into Game 6.
Across all DraftKings markets, betting is relatively split, with – 51% of the handle and 50% of bets on the Blue Jays (+123) to win Game 6, while 49% of the handle and 50% of bets back the Dodgers (-149).
Most bettors are also expecting offense, with 68% of the handle in the US taking Over (7.5 runs).
By comparison, Ontario bettors are showing strong local support, with 83% of the handle and 80% bets on the Jays to win.
Pitching matchups play a huge role in shaping our MLB odds, and the Dodgers hold a clear advantage in Game 6 with Yamamoto getting the start,” said DraftKings director of sports operations Johnny Avello.
“Gausman has been steady for Toronto this postseason, but Yamamoto has been dominant — as we saw in Game 2. That edge gives the Dodgers a strong chance to extend the series. Still, winning back-to-back elimination games is not easy, which is why the Dodgers are +200 to win the series.”
Q+A with Eric Biggio, Baseball Oddsmaker, Caesars Sportsbook
According to Eric Biggio, Lead Baseball Oddsmaker, Caesars Sportsbook, betting handle is all schedule-related.
“For tonight’s game, with Game 6 being the marquee event on the daily calendar, I expect the handle to be very strong,” he said. “The NFL is still king for us as far as wagering, but a World Series game typically performs similarly to an NBA finals or NCAA March Madness game.”
Which side is seeing the most action from bettors right now, and is it skewing towards casual or sharp money?
“Right now, there’s a really good split of two-way action, with a little more of the parlay money on the Dodgers. The sharper money usually comes in after the lineups are released, so I’d expect some sharper play towards gametime.”
What are some of the factors influencing the line for this game?
“Obviously, Yamamoto’s last outing is fresh in most people’s minds, which has kept the Dodgers as the road favorite in this spot. The number might be higher, but with the Dodgers’ slumping lineup and the chance Springer plays for Toronto, tonight might push the number more towards the Blue Jays.”
Popular Prop Bets
What prop bets do you expect to be the most popular?
“Vlad Jr. and Ohtani by far lead the list of most popular SGP legs. Both guys to hit HR’s, total bases, etc. Bettors are also backing Yamamoto tonight.”
I have been hammering the angle of heavy Canadian action on the Jays over the last few weeks
“Yes, the majority of the action we get from our customers in Ontario favors the Jays, and a good amount of Southern California money filters into our Nevada sportsbooks on the Dodgers.
“Outside of the So Cal influence, though, I’d say the majority of customers in the States are rooting for the Blue Jays, as most of the recreational baseball fans I know are anti-Dodgers!”
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