Merkley, Klobuchar Want to Ban Government Officials from Trading on Prediction Markets
Posted on: March 5, 2026, 12:42h.
Last updated on: March 5, 2026, 12:42h.
- If signed into law, the bill introduced by the senators would ban members of Congress, the president, and vice president from trading on prediction markets
- The legislation was proposed following prediction markets controversies involving US actions in Venezuela and Iran
- Another senator is expected to propose similar legislation
Amid insider trading controversies tied to US military actions in Venezuela and Iran, federal lawmakers are proposing bills aimed at prohibiting high-ranking officials from using non-public information to profit on prediction markets.
Today, Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act, which would ban the president, vice president, members of Congress, and other high-ranking government officials from trading event contracts.
When public officials use non-public information to win a bet, you have the perfect recipe to undermine the public’s belief that government officials are working for the public good, not for their own personal profits,” said Merkley in a statement. “Perfectly timed bets on prediction markets have the unmistakable stench of corruption. To protect the public interest, Congress must step up and pass my End Prediction Market Corruption Act to crack down on this bad bet for democracy.”
Cosponsors of the bill include Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Adam Schiff (D-CA), and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD). As one of the senators from a state with a significant number of tribal casinos, Schiff is a vocal critic of prediction markets.
Trading on Geopolitical Events Sparks Merkley, Klobuchar Bill
The Merkeley/Klobuchar proposal is the latest example of federal lawmakers taking a hardline against what amounts to be insider trading involving geopolitical events.
There’s evidence a Polymarket, potentially with ties to the White House, made around $400K on derivatives tied to US military action involving the capture of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. That’s been followed by similar suspect trading patterns pertaining to contracts involving the conflict in Iran.
“At the same time that prediction markets have seen huge growth, we have seen increasing reports of misconduct. This legislation strengthens the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s ability to go after bad actors and provides rules of the road to prevent those with confidential government or policy information from exploiting their access for financial gain,” said Klobuchar in the statement.
The US isn’t the only country where geopolitically motivated insider trading on prediction markets is an issue. Last month, Israeli authorities hit two people with securities charges for trading contracts on Polymarket related to that country’s military actions in Iran.
Another Senator Could Propose His Own Bill
Chris Murphy (D-CT) is expected to propose his own prediction markets insider trading bill later this month. His bill aims to bar event contracts tied to government actions and related statements (“mention” markets) delivered by politicians.
“Obviously, there are people close to Donald Trump who on Friday knew what was happening on Saturday. And it is very likely, probable even, that the people that placed those bets were people with inside information,” said the senator in a social media post.
Murphy’s legislation doesn’t seek to ban economic and financial derivatives offered by prediction markets.
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