Luck of the Draw: Kalshi Lands 3 Trump-Appointed Judges in Ninth Circuit Case
Posted on: April 6, 2026, 06:07h.
Last updated on: April 6, 2026, 06:07h.
- It’s a consolidated case also involving Crypto.com and Robinhood
- The case is those prediction market operators’ appeal on a Nevada court ruling declaring event contracts to be a form of betting
- Kalshi scored a big win today in the Third Circuit Court
Fans of legal and political conspiracy theories may have some fresh fodder as the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit prepares to hear what some view as a landmark prediction markets case.
Earlier today, it was revealed that the three-judge panel slated to hear a consolidated prediction markets case is comprised of Bridget Bade, Kenneth Lee and Ryan Nelson, all of whom were appointed by President Trump. That potentially lucky draw for Crypto.com, Kalshi and Robinhood Markets, the appellants in the case, prompted some legal experts to call it a fortuitous break for the yes/no exchanges in their effort to overturn a ruling by a lower federal court in Nevada that says event contracts are essentially wagering. That decision placed significant restrictions on prediction market menus in that state.
Due in part to Donald Trump Jr. being an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket as well as an investor in the latter, there’s been considerable talk that the prediction markets industry is right-leaning. That notion may have been fortified last week when the Trump Administration through the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois on the grounds that those states are overstepping in their efforts to regulate yes/no exchanges.
However, some of the recent bills introduced in Congress aimed at quashing insider trading on prediction markets are bipartisan and several of the states pursuing litigation against Kalshi and others are those President Trump won easily in each of his three campaigns.
Coincidence, Not Conspiracy
Judges for cases at all of the US circuit courts of appeals are selected via a random, digitized process, meaning it’s coincidence, not a conspiracy that three Trump appointees were selected for the prediction markets case.
The Ninth Circuit is the largest such court in the US as it has responsibility for 13 lower courts spanning nine states, including Nevada, and two territories. As such, the 29 judges, 24 of whom have senior designation, makeup the largest population on any of the circuit courts.
For those that just can’t give up notions of conspiracy theory in the prediction markets case, the math is against them. Ten of the Ninth Circuit’s current judges, including the aforementioned trio, were appointed by Trump. That’s slightly ahead of the eight that were appointed by President Biden. In other words, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that any case heard by the court will be heard by three Trump appointees.
Though it has a reputation for being left-leaning, likely due to the political proclivities of some of the states in the circuit, the Ninth Circuit is more divided in terms of presidential appointees than casual observers realize. Sixteen of the current judges were appointed by Democrat presidents, including the eight Biden appointees, while 13 were appointed by Republicans.
Legitimately Good News for Kalshi
It remains to be seen if the prediction market operators benefit from a lucky spin of the judge wheel of fortune in the Ninth Circuit, but there’s no denying Kaslhi scored a significant legal win in the Third Circuit earlier today.
By a 2-1 vote, judges there ruled Kalshi’s event contracts are federally regulated derivatives that the state of New Jersey has no authority to regulate.
That ruling stoked speculation that the Ninth Circuit will follow suit, potentially dealing a blow to Nevada’s efforts to keep sports event contracts out of the state.
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