Kalshi-Backed Poll Says 90% of Voters Support Prediction Markets
Posted on: November 10, 2025, 01:49h.
Last updated on: November 10, 2025, 02:09h.
- Results aren’t exactly surprising in Axis Research poll
- Survey claims respondents back prediction markets in their current form and believe the industry should be regulated federally
- Poll arrives against the backdrop of souring attitudes toward sports betting
In perhaps some of the least surprising polling results of any variety, a Kalshi-commissioned survey conducted by Axis indicates 89% of American voters are supportive of prediction markets in their current form, with 54% saying that even if they don’t participate in that form of investing/wagering, they “strongly” believe Americans should have the right to decide for themselves.
Axis queried 1,219 votes in the US between September 18 and September 23. Skeptics are apt to say that because the poll was backed by one of the biggest names in prediction markets, it unsurprisingly produced results that paint the industry in a favorable light.
On that note, it’s probably not surprising that when accounting for the plethora of state-level legal challenges Kalshi is facing, the poll says a significant majority of respondents believe event contract exchanges should be regulated federally.
Voters nearly universally view the purchase of stocks, mutual funds and participation in commodities markets as a ‘financial investment’ (89%) over viewing these activities as ‘gambling’ (11%),” notes Kashi. “Because of this belief, voters overwhelmingly say ‘Federal Government Regulators’ should regulate these activities (79%) rather than ‘State Gaming Commissions’ (21%).”
In New York, Kalshi was recently hit with a class-action suit in which the plaintiff argues the platform is akin to illegal gambling. On October 24, the New York State Gaming Commission (NYGC) sent a letter to Kalshi saying the company is offering a form of unapproved wagering, and legislators have joined the party.
A recently drafted bill out of Albany seeks to ban Kalshi from offering financial and sports derivatives, among others.
Kalshi Poll Claims Voters See Differences
Since the start of the 2025 football season, prediction market volumes have exploded as companies like Kalshi expanded offerings of sports event contracts. Not only has that stirred debate in social media circles regarding how much of prediction market turnover is derived from sports, it has also prompted critics to assert that prediction markets are sportsbooks in disguise.
For its part, Kalshi says voters see clear differences between event contracts and standard sports wagers, with 60% of respondents in the Axis survey saying coming out with yes/no derivatives requires analysis comparable to what’s performed in securities selection — something they believe is absent in “chance-based gambling.”
“Prediction markets are aggregating information from thousands of individuals to produce a real-time probability of a sports outcome and should be considered analysis more than gambling (63%),” according to the poll. “Sports prediction markets create a public good by producing forecasts useful to the media, leagues, and owners” (59%).
The poll also notes that two-thirds of respondents view states’ efforts to regulate prediction markets as grabs aimed at collecting more tax revenues and stifling innovation. Respondents also believe that it would be investors/bettors who would be hurt the most by more regulations.
Survey Arrives Amid Souring Sports Betting Attitudes
Whether or not prediction markets are sportsbooks is a debate unlikely to be solved over the near term, but what is clear (it’s likely coincidence) is that the Kalshi survey arrives at a time of increasingly gloomy attitudes toward sports betting – sentiment undoubtedly fueled by a recent spate of scandals in US professional sports.
A recent YouGov poll indicates that 44% of Americans, and 31% of those who consider themselves sports bettors, believe legalized wagering is negatively affecting sports. Just 24% of bettors and 9% of the overall population believe the opposite.
“Combining respondents who said often, sometimes, or rarely, more than four-fifths of US sports bettors believe athletes alter how they play because of sports betting,” notes YouGov. “This suggests that those more closely involved with sports betting have a higher level of skepticism about the integrity of professional sports.”
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