California Gubernatorial Langford Buys Kalshi Contracts on Himself
Posted on: May 28, 2025, 04:24h.
Last updated on: May 28, 2025, 04:24h.
- Republican candidate buys nearly $100 worth of contracts on himself
- Kalshi has offered US political contracts since before the 2024 presidential election
A longshot candidate in the 2026 California governor’s race is putting his money where his mouth, betting on himself to win on Kalshi.
Republican Kyle Langford posted on X, formerly Twitter, earlier today that he bought $98.76 worth of Kalshi “yes” contracts on himself to be the next governor of the largest state. Reflecting the steep hill Republican candidates face for statewide offices in California, Kalshi showed a 6% chance of Langford winning at the time he bought the contracts.
So if Langford shocks the world and is in victorious in his quest to win the Golden State’s top elected office, he’d net himself a tidy profit on Kalshi. If he wins, the president of the California First Political Action Committee (PAC) would more than triple his $98.76 investment by clearing a profit of $306.32.
Kalshi, one of the dominant names in the prediction markets space, has long tussled with regulators over offering election contracts – something that traditional sportsbook operators are forbidden from doing. In October 2022, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ordered Kalshi to halt any contracts tied to US political races.
The following year, the exchange operator sued the regulator, saying it overstepped its regulatory authority, adding that the yes/no contracts it offers aren’t comparable to standard sports bet. Kalshi was successful in those legal efforts and was able to offer political contracts in advance of the 2024 presidential race — an event that put a spotlight on prediction markets. Earlier this month, the CFTC voted to drop an appeal against Kalshi in the election markets case.
Kalshi Says Republicans Face Long Odds in California Race
Deep blue California has had just one Republican governor this century — actor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Kalshi’s current odds reflect little likelihood of that changing in November 2026.
At those prices, there’s little money to be made for investors buying “yes” contracts on Democrats and risk for those doing the same with GOP candidates, likely explaining why that event on Kalshi has garnered dollar volume of just $3,106.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) leads the way on Kalshi at 21% and four more Democrats have better odds than Langford, though he’s currently the top contender among Republican candidates.
Further amplifying the risk of betting on Langford or any other GOP candidate in the California gubernatorial race is the state’s “jungle” primary system. Under that methodology, the top two voter-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election. So it’s possible that two Democrats will face-off in the November 2026 general election.
Kalshi Sports Offerings Under Scrutiny
Prediction markets, including Kalshi, offer a slew of yes/no contracts on things ranging from cryptocurrency prices, economic data releases, politics, and pop culture, but it’s been Kalshi’s move into sports contracts that’s intensified state-level regulatory scrutiny on the company.
While Kalshi’s sports contracts volumes represent a scant percentage of the overall regulated domestic sports betting industry, it is an increasing part of the operator’s business and there are concerns that if Kalshi and others in the space move to offer parlays, those companies could become significant competitive threats to old guard sportsbook operators.
Last week, Arizona joined Illinois, Maryland, Montana, Ohio, Nevada, and New Jersey in issuing cease and desist letters to Kalshi, saying the company isn’t complying with state gaming regulations. Those states argue that prediction market operators don’t possess gaming licenses and thus should be prohibited from offering sports event contracts in those jurisdictions.
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