Blue Jays’ World Series Odds Head Due South After Weekend Collapse
Posted on: October 14, 2025, 04:10h.
Last updated on: October 14, 2025, 04:10h.
- Blue Jays’ World Series odds jump to +1200 after weekend ALCS collapse
- Team looks to rebound with Shane Bieber starting Game 3 tomorrow in Seattle
- Do Canadian bettors still bet with their hearts as Mariners head home with 2-0 series lead?
Remember those shorter Blue Jays’ World Series odds that I wrote about Saturday morning, +340 at DraftKings, just after the Dodgers in terms of betting favourites? Never mind. In two days, over the Canadian Thanksgiving weekend, the team’s championship quest skidded right off the rails, after two decisive losses in the American Championship Series (ALCS) at home to the Seattle Mariners.
Blue Jays’ Odds Dramatically Shift
Canadian sports fans are starved for any success by the few sports teams we have, especially when up against the big bad Americans – any reason to waive the flag and sing the anthem in the Age of Trump. We saw it big time during hockey’s 4 Nations Face-Off last winter, especially during the famous line brawl game in Montreal. Remember the off-the-charts betting volume for that final game (a Team Canada win) in Boston?
The Mariner’s lineup is shoulders deep with hitters – MVP candidate Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, then they go out and pick up sluggers Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez at the trade deadline.
What Blue Jays bettors didn’t expect was the performance Bryce Miller in Game 1 Sunday. After giving up a leadoff home run to George Springer, on the first pitch – a continuation of the Jays’ home run domination that jacked the nation against the Yankees in the ALDS – Miller, fifth in the Mariners’ starting pitching chart (after Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo and George Kirby), went six innings, giving up just one more hit. Seattle would win Game 1 3-1.
Mariners Betting Favourites for Game 3 of ALCS
Then yesterday, Game 2, the Mariners starting Gilbert, the Jays countering with rookie Trey Yesavage, who authored the prominent storyline coming out of the Yankees series, his 5.1-inning, 11-strikeout domination in Game 2. Rodriguez (with two), Polanco and Naylor all hit homers on the way to a 10-3 win. Yesavage’s first inning start yesterday was rough, before he evened out, giving the team four innings – five runs, four hits, four SOs.
So now what? The Blue went out and picked up starter former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber (7 GP, 4-2, 3.57 ERA, 40.1 IP, 1.02 WHIP, 37 SOs) for just these types of games. He starts Game 3 tomorrow at T-Mobile Park in Seattle (8:08 p.m. EST). Kirby goes for the Mariners (23 GP, 10-8, 4.21 ERA, 126.0 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 137 SOs). Tomorrow’s weather forecast calls for 5% chance of precipitation, 16 degrees C (61 degrees F).
Four HRs in Game 2 Domination
So, all that excitement in Toronto and Canada generally, that buzz after the Yankees series, is gone like the weekend’s turkey leftovers.
What about those World Series odds now? Just a killing field. BetMGM tells us the Jays were +325 before the ALCS started, +550 after losing Game 1, +1200 today after Game 2. At ESPN BET, before Game 1, the Blue Jays World Series winner odds were +300. Toronto was +500 by late Sunday night and went up to +1200 after Game 2, where they sit now.
Canadian sportsbook operators are no doubt sleeping better with the developments of the past few days, previously staring at the double barrel of a massive Jays’ liability, since Canadians bet on the few Canadian sports teams we have with a robustness that Americans couldn’t understand. Canadians love their pro sports teams and bet accordingly.
Canadian Sportsbooks Do Well
“Speaking with a few colleagues, they certainly did quite well on those two individual games,” said Phill Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction. Jays are out to 5/1 now on ALCS and 14/1 WS, and they are still seeing considerable action on those growing the risk.
“Conversely a large U.S. book I was speaking with did very poorly with the Dodgers Game 1 win [over the Brewers in the NLCS] and Seattle taking the first two games. That really highlights the contrast as I’ve speaking about – the day and night difference in betting patterns when a Canadian team is playing and hometown bettors. It is quite unique – given that we only have a few teams in major sports.
“But certainly, when the USA is in an international competition it becomes the same. By far the biggest liability for U.S. books in next year’s World Cup for example will be the U.S. Men’s Team. That’s going to be massive. U.S. also bets by region, so Las Vegas sees a different lean on West Coast teams than the Eastern books do, for example.”
Bieber Versus Kirby in Game 3
BetMGM has the Moneyline Blue Jays +115 and Mariners -135 for Game 3, the Spread Jays +1.5 (-208), Mariners -1.5 (+170), and the Over at 7 (+100), -120 on the Under 7.
“The Blue Jays entered the ALCS as the second-favorite team to win the World Series, priced at +325, behind the Dodgers. After Sunday’s loss, they were adjusted to +550,” said Eric Biggio, the Lead Baseball oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook. “After yesterday’s loss, they’ve drifted to 14/1. Unfortunate for the book as well, as the Blue Jays winning would be our best-case scenario for World Series futures liability.”
Biggio was referring more to the collective liability – American and Canadian bettors. Do Canadian bettors still bet with their hearts over their brains for Game 3?
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