Suspicious Prediction Market Trading Activity on Polymarket Ahead of Ceasefire
Posted on: April 9, 2026, 07:56h.
Last updated on: April 9, 2026, 07:56h.
- Polymarket experienced suspicious trading ahead of the US-Iran ceasefire
- The CFTC says prediction markets bear the brunt of responsibility in detecting insider trading
An analysis of publicly available blockchain data linked to the Polymarket prediction market shows that at least 50 trading accounts were created just before President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market that’s licensed as a Designated Contract Market by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The platform facilitates the buying and selling of futures and options contracts that are supposedly based on an underlying commodity, index, or instrument.
An analysis from Dune, a crypto analytics service, found that more than 50 newly formed Polymarket wallets made large “Yes” bets on Polymarket regarding a US-Iran two-week ceasefire in the hours leading up to the announcement.
One such wallet made $72,000 in bets at an average price of less than nine cents. When Trump announced the ceasefire on his Truth Social, the Polymarket contract was closed, with each share redeemed at $1. The $72,000 in bets generated a return of approximately $200,000 for the account.
Another wallet that was opened just 12 minutes before Trump’s social media post wagered almost $32,000 on a ceasefire deal, netting a profit of $48,500.
Insider Trading Activity
Polymarket and its much larger primary competitor, Kalshi, have faced criticism for offering contracts involving sports outcomes. The platforms’ trading in futures events tied to politics and matters involving war, including when Ali Khamenei would cease being Iran’s supreme leader, have also proved polemic.
Many Democrats in Congress contend that insiders in Washington, DC, have used confidential information for their personal financial gain by making large trades on prediction markets.
“The American people are tired of politicians using their influence for personal gain, and the rise of prediction markets has made those concerns even more relevant. In recent months, we’ve seen instances of little-known traders making massive profits on events ranging from war with Iran to how long a government shutdown will last, raising necessary questions about the use of inside information,” US Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) said last month while introducing legislation to prohibit members of Congress from participating in prediction markets.
There is the possibility that the ceasefire activity did not involve misappropriated information or inside knowledge of a forthcoming announcement. Throughout the day, Trump had escalated his rhetoric of threats, including saying “a whole civilization will die tonight” unless a ceasefire was agreed upon.
Prediction Market Monitoring
Regulated online sportsbooks have various surveillance systems in place to detect suspicious wagering. David Miller, the director of enforcement at the CFTC, said recently that much of the monitoring responsibility for federally regulated prediction markets rests with the licensee.
Exchanges have … obligations to have appropriate surveillance, compliance practices and procedures, promote fair and equitable trading, protect markets from abusive practices, and, importantly, to only list contracts that are not susceptible to manipulation,” Miller said.
“Exchanges doing their job … [is an] essential part of the fight against market manipulation and insider trading,” Miller added.
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