Smarkets Could Mull Reentering US, Bring Prediction Market With It

Posted on: July 17, 2025, 01:26h. 

Last updated on: July 17, 2025, 02:07h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • Company is back in Indiana sports wagering market
  • One of the only examples of an operator reentering US
  • Smarkets could consider US sports betting exchange offering, too

Smarkets, the operator of one of the world’s largest prediction markets platforms, is showing an interest in returning to the US sports betting market, and it could eventually bring an event contracts offering with it.

Smarkets
The Smarkets logo. The company could reenter the US sports betting market and potentially bring its prediction markets offering along, too. (Image: Smarkets)

As Citizens equity research analyst Jordan Bender points out in a new report, Smarkets is back in Indiana, where its online sportsbook has posted a year-to-date handle of $2 million. The London-based company was among those that flocked to the US following the 2018 Supreme Court ruling on the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA). It was also among the operators that found the US market to be too cost-intensive, and one in which it’s difficult to gain traction against the DraftKing/FanDuel duopoly.

The catalysts for investing and reentering into the US were led by the rationalization of market access fees compared to expensive agreements signed during the early days of the industry,” notes Bender.

In regulated, post-PAPSA form, the US sports wagering industry is still young, but its graveyard is well-populated. As Bender points out, Smarkets appears to be the first example of an attempted Lazarus act.

Smarkets Could Eventually Become a US Prediction Markets Player

Founded in 2008 by Jason Trost and Hunter Morris, Smarkets is well-known in its home country and across Europe as a major betting exchange/prediction markets operator.

Across the pond, Smarkets competes with Flutter Entertainment’s (NYSE: FLUT) Betfair platform, among others, indicating it has the competencies and knowledge of competitive landscapes to potentially be a credible prediction markets player in the US, but the company is taking a pragmatic approach.

“For the betting exchange/predictions, Mr. Trost and the company are in a wait-and-see mode around the legality of the product in the US, yet it is currently going through the process of obtaining a betting exchange license, which can take one to two years,” observes Bender. “In the event prediction markets are permitted under Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) guidelines, we expect to see a push into the product through the Smarkets brand.”

The company’s sportsbook division, branded as SBK, is growing more rapidly than its exchange platform, but that could change if it brings its prediction market offering to the US. That said, it could find the sledding no easier than what it confronted with sports betting in this country because some companies are already establishing themselves as prediction markets leaders on a domestic basis.

Smarkets’ Tech Stack Compelling

Smarkets has one of the betting exchange industry’s few internally owned technology stacks, and that could be attractive to a potential buyer, but it appears the company wants to compete rather than sell.

Naturally, we think that would provide non-exchange operators incremental value if acquired for top online companies in the space, given the time and money needed to develop the technology and become licensed as an exchange,” adds Bender. “The CEO said there is always a price for anything, but he looks to compete against the top online companies in the space if given the opportunity and the expertise of the company.”

Smarkets is privately held and its investors include Deutsche Telekom Investments, Eberg Capital, Passion Capital, and Susquehanna Growth Equity. Susquehanna Growth Equity is part of Susquehanna International Group, which is a market maker for event contracts giant Kalshi.