Sands Downgraded Amid Premium Mass Push in Macau

Posted on: April 6, 2026, 11:02h. 

Last updated on: April 6, 2026, 11:02h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • Jefferies downgrades Las Vegas Sands to “hold” from “buy”
  • Analyst says company’s near-term earnings profile lost some luster
  • He reduced his price target on the stock by 15%

Shares of Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) traded lower on Monday after Jefferies delivered a Macau-related downgrade of the casino stock.

Las Vegas Sands Robert Goldstein China
The Venetian on the Cotai Strip in Macau, owned by Las Vegas Sands. An analyst downgraded the stock. (Image: Shutterstock)

In a new report to clients, analyst David Katz points out that Sands’ reinvestment plans and its increased focus on the premium mass segment in the Macau market could weigh on the operator’s earnings over the near-term. As such, he downgraded his rating on the stock to “hold” from “buy” while paring his target by 15% to $61. That still implies upside from the April 2 close around $54.30.

As a result, we view the near-term earnings profile as less compelling, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth decelerating to +3.9% in 2026 from ~+20% achieved in 2024–2025,” writes Katz.

Six of the 20 analysts cover Las Vegas Sands, which is the largest casino operator by market capitalization, rate it the equivalent of a hold. The average price target on the stock is $69.29, implying upside of 29% from current levels.

Singapore Sturdy, But Can’t Pick Up All the Slack

Through periods of lethargy in Macau, Marina Bay Sands (MBS) has stood tall with Sands highlighting consistently strong results at the Singapore integrated resorts.

The most profitable casino in the world, MBS is a powerful earnings generator and it’s expected to continue growing. Some analysts believe it’s now likely MBS will notch an earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) run rate north of $2.5 billion on the way to $3 billion.

Katz says the MBS growth story is intact, but he doesn’t see the venue shattering Wall Street estimates as it has in recent quarters.

“In Singapore, we expect growth to continue, albeit inline with expectations,” observes the analyst. “We note that the next phase of property updates includes a heavier mix of non‑gaming additions (IR2), which are inherently lower‑ROI in nature. We are adjusting our rating to Hold and note that our 1Q26 and FY26/27 Adj. EBITDA estimates are (2.9)% and (4.9%) below the Street, respectively.”

In Macau, a Preference for Premium

While Macau’s monthly gross gaming revenue (GGR) numbers have been solid of late, Sands’ focus on the premium mass demographic could limit its earnings and revenue growth potency in the special administrative region (SAR).

Against the backdrop of an all but dead junket business, competition for premium mass customers is stiff in Macau, which is less of a concern for operators, such as Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN), that focus on the highest tier visitors to the gaming enclave.

“Wynn Macau has historically demonstrated strength in premium mass, leading us to believe the property should deliver above‑market growth,” notes Katz. “We model +16.2% YoY Adj. EBITDA growth in 1Q, supported by ~90 bps of YoY margin expansion. LVS’ increased focus on premium mass comes at the expense of margins, in our view, alongside a more limited revenue growth outlook for its Macau portfolio.”