Prediction Market Users Mostly Small, Act Like Day Traders
Posted on: March 30, 2026, 02:29h.
Last updated on: March 30, 2026, 02:29h.
- Median bet size on Polymarket is just $10
- Analysis indicates average user on that platform trades 25 times per day
- That behavior is more consistent with active or day trading than sports betting
Prediction markets are courting institutional investors and whale bettors, but the exchanges are still dealing with the reality that their average client is a capital-constrained, active bettor/trader.
A recent analysis by BeInCrypto confirms that activity on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market by volume, indicates the median bet/trade size on that platform is just $10 and the average is $89. That latter figure is skewed to the upside by a small number of market participants that trade in size on Polymarket.
The underlying distribution paints a clearer picture: roughly 20% of all wallets trade in the $0 to $10 range, another 27% fall between $10 and $50, and about 11% sit in the $50 to $100 bracket,” according to the publication. “In total, over 57% of users trade for less than $100, and more than 80% trade for less than $500.”
Looked another way, the current state of prediction markets’ core client base is reminiscent of what was seen on brokerage platforms such as Robinhood during the coronavirus pandemic and shortly after. That is to say a lot cash-starved, risk-seeking market participants currently populate prediction markets.
Prediction Market Traders Behavior not Consistent with Sports Betting
There’s ample talk about sports event contracts accounting for outsized percentages of volume on yes/no exchanges with those derivatives inviting comparisons to traditional sports bets by some politicians and state regulators.
However, the trading patterns of the average Polymarket user are more consistent with those of day traders, not sports bettors. BeInCrypto points out the typical Polymarket client places 25 trades per day. While that’s off the high of 37 seen earlier this year, that’s a staggering amount compared to the activity of a typical sports bettor.
A CivicScience survey released last November says just 31% of bettors using regulated sports place bets every day. That cements the notion that many small prediction market traders are behaving more like day traders and less like sports bettors.
The BeInCrpto analysis confirms there’s something to that assertion with the analysis noting that many Polymarket users aren’t placing a single trade and going away. Rather, they’re trading in other markets and often doing so with high frequency.
On Prediction Markets, Retail Looms Large
Prediction market operators are attempting to broaden their appeal to professional market participants and sharp bettors. It’s common for these exchanges to offer large sports bettors discounted or eliminated fees in exchange for the liquidity they provide.
When it comes to wooing to institutional traders, Kalshi could soon offer margin trading and is making other strides in terms of courting Wall Street, but the current reality is that the broader behavior displayed on prediction is consistent with that of retail traders.
“High-frequency, small-size trading is the behavioral signature of retail finance, whether the underlying asset is a stock, a token, or a prediction contract,” notes BeInCrypto.
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