Trader: We’re Expecting Record Engagement for March Madness
Posted on: March 16, 2026, 10:03h.
Last updated on: March 16, 2026, 10:03h.
- Fields set for start of March Madness single-elimination NCAA Division I basketball tournament this week
- First Four play-in games start tomorrow
- Sportsbooks predicting record engagement this time out
It’s been a long winter, a long wait, but for bettors, the March Madness Men’s and Women’s NCAA Basketball tournaments are now upon us, with sportsbook traders expecting record engagement this time out.
First Four Tomorrow
The men’s and women’s NCAA Tournament brackets are set – 68 teams, 67 games, for each bracket, a month of unscripted drama, maybe a Cinderella team or two, the one sports event of the year that drives massive betting volume because there’s never a dull moment. The American Gaming Association (AGA) is projecting that Americans will wager $3.3 billion across legal sportsbooks, with prediction market volume on top of that.
Action gets going tomorrow with the men’s First Four (Texas versus NC State in the West, Miami (Ohio) versus SMU in the Midwest, UMBC versus Howard in the Midwest, Prairie View versus Lehigh in the South), and continues Wednesday when the women’s side gets started (Nebraska versus Richmond, Virginia versus Arizona St., Missouri St. versus SF Austin, Southern U. versus Samford).
On the Men’s side, at Caesars Sportsbook, the Duke Blue Devils (+295) open as the favorites to cut down the nets April 6 in Indianapolis, followed by Michigan (+350), Arizona (+425) and Florida (+650). In the Women’s bracket, defending champion Connecticut (-280) are large favorites, followed by UCLA (+500) and Texas (+700). The championship game on the women’s side is April 5 at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix.
Record Engagement
“We’re expecting a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season,” said Patrick Berbert, College Basketball Trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field.
From a betting standpoint, we’re projecting record engagement again. College basketball has been a phenomenal product all season, and the television ratings reflect that, as it was reportedly the most-watched regular season ever.
“We anticipate SMU/Miami OH, Utah St/Villanova, High Point/Wisconsin, and the winner of NC State/Texas vs BYU to be highly-wagered First Round games,” said Berbert.
Men’s Side Betting Favourites
No. 1 Duke opens up against No. 16 Siena Thursday at Bon Secours Wellness Arena, with No. 1 Michigan opening up Thursday as well, against a team to be determined, at KeyBank Center in Buffalo. On Friday, No. 1 Arizona plays No. 16 Long Island University at Viejas Arena in San Diego, while No. 1 Florida plays a team to be determined at Benchmark International Arena.
“Duke enters the tournament as the current title favorite at +295,” said Berbert. “They’ve been dealing with some injuries lately, but they’re expected to get Patrick Ngbonga back, which should give them a boost heading into the tournament. Michigan, meanwhile, cooled off a bit after its scorching start, and the injury to LJ Cason could be significant.
“Florida had some struggles during non-conference play, but really found its stride in SEC action. With a roster full of experienced players, they’ll be a tough out. Arizona may be the most battle-tested of the group, given the schedule they’ve played and the consistency they’ve shown all season. All four teams have earned their position near the top of the odds board.”
Women’s Side Betting Favourites
On the women’s side, No. 1 Texas opens up Friday against a team to be determined at Moody Center in Austin, and No. 1 South Carolina opens up Saturday against a team to be determined at Colonial Life Arena, in Columbia, SC. Also on Saturday, No. 1 UConn plays No. 16 UTSA at Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, CT, and No. 1 UCLA plays No. 16 California Baptist at Pauley Pavilion in L.A.
UConn has been incredibly dominant, winning 29-straight games by double digits,” said Berbert. “It’s one of the more remarkable runs we’ve seen in recent memory, and that dominance is reflected in their current title price of -280. Sarah Strong has emerged as the favorite for the Wooden Award, and Azzi Fudd continues to play at an elite level as one of the best players in the country.
“In our view, UCLA presents the biggest potential challenge, but overall, it’s hard to see many teams standing in UConn’s way if they continue playing at this level.”
Cinderella Teams to Watch Out For
South Florida, under coach Bryan Hodgson, a team that pushes the pace and shoots a high volume of threes, is a team to watch out on the men’s side, Berbert added, as a Saint Louis and Miami (Ohio), drawing early attention as Cinderella teams, in the men’s bracket as well.
According to BetMGM this morning, most bet games (tickets) are SMU at Miami OH, NC State at Texas, Howard at MD Baltimore, Northern Iowa at St. Johns, and High Point at Wisconsin.
At theScore Bet, biggest opening spreads are Arizona -29.5 (vs LIU), Duke -28.5 (vs Siena), Purdue -23.5 (vs Queens University), Iowa State -23.5 (vs Tennessee State), Houston -21.5 (vs Idaho), and Illinois -21.5 (vs Penn).
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