Kalshi Disputes Data Showing New Users Lose Faster Than on Sportsbooks

Posted on: February 5, 2026, 08:08h. 

Last updated on: February 5, 2026, 08:08h.

Philip Conneller @casinoorgphilc Read More
Expertise: Gaming Business, Regulation, Tribal Gaming.
  • Prediction market losses outpace sportsbooks, especially among new and weaker users
  • Kalshi disputes data and briefly accuses startup of attempted extortion
  • Regulatory stakes rise as platforms reject sportsbook classification

Kalshi has been forced to walk back an allegation of “extortion” amid a public dispute over data suggesting new users lose money faster on prediction markets than at traditional sportsbooks.

Kalshi, prediction markets, betting data, Juice Reel, sports betting regulation
Kalshi operates federally regulated prediction markets, which it argues function as financial contracts rather than sports bets. But data cited in a new report raises questions about whether prediction markets deliver better outcomes for new and casual bettors than traditional sports betting apps. (Image: Kalshi/Shutterstock)

An equity research report by Citizens analysts concluded that the median prediction-market user lost about 7% of the amount wagered during their first 90 days, versus roughly 1% for users of regulated sportsbooks and other gambling apps.

Losses were especially pronounced among weaker performers: the bottom quarter of prediction-market users lost around 28 cents of every dollar wagered in their first three months, while the bottom 10% lost about 44%, compared with 11% on conventional betting platforms.

Data Quarrel

The findings are kryptonite to Kalshi, which claims that prediction markets offer a more consumer-friendly alternative to traditional sports betting. When presented with the findings by Bloomberg, Kalshi’s head of communications Elisabeth Diana claimed the data was “flat-out wrong.”

Moreover, the company that provided the data in the Citizens report, betting data startup Juice Reel, had in the past sought “investment support” from Kalshi, she added, implying this was a case of sour grapes.

Diana alleged that Juice Reel’s founder and CEO Ricky Gold offered to “defuse the situation” surrounding the data if he were granted a meeting with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour.

Please consider the source and its motives,” Diana told Bloomberg. “This is extortion.”

But Gold tells a different story. He claimed that Kalshi pressured him to tell Bloomberg the data was inaccurate. The Juice Reel app lets users track and analyze their own betting activity and aggregates transaction-level data from linked accounts.

“We stand for transparency, we stand for helping bettors, traders understand their activity across the platform, and we stand behind our data,” Gold said.

Kalshi Climbdown

Diana later told Bloomberg she wished to retract the “extortion” claim, suggesting a lawyer had entered the chat, but she maintained that Kalshi’s own internal data contradicted the findings. Kalshi has not released figures to support that claim.

Kalshi and rivals like Polymarket are desperate to be seen as financial exchanges and information markets rather than sportsbooks. The events contracts they offer are classed not as wagers but as a form of derivative, allowing them to argue they fall under federal commodities regulation rather than state gambling laws.

The distinction is central to their business model and to their efforts to fend off challenges from state regulators who claim prediction markets are simply sportsbooks in disguise.

Regulators in several states, including Nevada, have argued that prediction markets amount to unlicensed gambling and have sought to restrict their operations.