Kalshi Beating Sportsbooks on NCAA Tournament Pricing
Posted on: March 30, 2026, 11:24h.
Last updated on: March 30, 2026, 11:24h.
- Kalshi has consistently beaten sportsbooks on March Madness pricing
- Other prediction market platforms are lagging
- Analyst maintains view that prediction markets posed limited threat to sportsbook profitability
Kalshi is getting it right in terms of the pricing offered to clients on NCAA Tournament games, besting traditional sportsbooks along the way.
In a new report, Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender points out that while DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) featured the best pricing on the “first four” games for the men’s tournament, Kalshi swiftly took that mantle, becoming the pricing leader across the first two rounds, the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8. Citizens’ pricing analysis focuses on NCAA Tournament money line and over/under wagers.
“DraftKings had the best customer pricing across the first four games, but Kalshi had the best pricing for the remaining rounds. Kalshi’s vig was 4.42% and 4.55% in the Elite 8 and Sweet 16, respectively, when blending the moneyline and over/under, followed by DraftKings, and then Fanatics,” observes Bender.
Thus far, Kalshi’s tournament pricing works out to 4.12% compared to 4.34%, 4.45% and 4.48%, respectively, for DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics. The analyst points out that prediction markets operated by DraftKings, Fanatics, FanDuel and Robinhood aren’t keeping pace on the March Madness pricing front.
Fast Pricing Improvement for Kalshi
Whereas traditional sportsbooks charge what’s known as a vig — requiring a $110 bet to win $100 at -110 odds — Kalshi charges transaction fees. In many cases, professional traders and sharp bettors don’t pay that fee on Kalshi because the prediction market operator wants to incentivize those market participants to bring liquidity to the marketplace in an effort to maintain tight spreads. However, retail bettors are subject to the fee.
The transaction costs incurred by recreational bettors on Kalshi is serving the objective of improving pricing during one of the most wagered on events on the US sports calendar.
“Kalshi charges a transaction fee on every contract traded on its platform, designed to incentivize liquidity on the order book rather than liquidity removal,” adds Bender. “In our analysis, this fee averaged approximately $1.58 per 100 contracts in the Elite 8 and $1.65 in the Sweet 16, the driver of improved pricing.”
Kalshi’s pricing improvements for the NCAA Tournament arrive after the largest US prediction market consistently lagged sportsbook rival on NFL pricing during the 2025 season. During March Madness, Kalshi appears to be capitalizing on live betting/trading.
“We also tracked volume across the games on Kalshi. In-game represented 74% of the volume in the Elite 8, 76% in the Sweet 16, and 73% for the tournament, compared to traditional sportsbooks, which we believe is closer to 55% to 60% for the tournament,” observes Bender.
Prediction Market Threat to Sportsbooks Still Limited
While Kalshi made pricing strides during a marquee sporting event, Bender reiterates the view that prediction markets pose “limited impact” to established sportsbooks’ profitability. In part, that perspective is rooted in the notion that most retail bettors aren’t as price sensitive as their sharp counterparts are.
“In the legal sports betting states given the number-one selling point of better pricing is not true, for now. Said another way, players that are not price sensitive have a larger betting menu on traditional betting apps, and price-sensitive customers are not getting superior pricing for the most liquid sports markets on Kalshi,” concludes the analyst.
Recent research from other sell-side firms indicates that in states where sports wagering is legal, bettors widely prefer platforms such as DraftKings and FanDuel to prediction markets.
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