Goldman Sachs Hints at Prediction Markets Entry
Posted on: January 15, 2026, 02:20h.
Last updated on: January 15, 2026, 02:30h.
- CEO David Solomon met with leaders of two large prediction market companies
- He calls prediction markets “super interesting”
- He says the Wall Street bank has a team evaluating how the company can get involved
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), the largest Wall Street bank, is examining how it can enter the prediction markets space – one CEO David Solomon describes as “super interesting.”
On the company’s fourth-quarter earnings conference call on Thursday, Solmon told analysts he recently met with the leadership of “two big prediction companies” to examine how Goldman’s competencies could translate to the world of yes/no derivatives.
I’ve personally met with the two big prediction companies and their leadership in the last two weeks and spent a couple of hours with each to learn more about that,” said Solomon in response to a question from Wolfe Research analyst Steven Chubak. “We have a team of people here that are spending time with them and are looking at it.”
Solomon, who’s held the top spot at the bank since 2018, didn’t identify the prediction market operators with whom he met. He made no mention of sports derivatives, which account for the bulk of volume on prediction markets, but have also prompted significant legal and regulatory scrutiny on the industry.
Goldman Competencies Transferrable to Prediction Markets
Goldman Sachs runs some of the largest, most active trading desks in the world, and has extensive teams of traders dedicated to asset classes such as commodities, derivatives, swaps, and more, which is to say the bank has the expertise and technological know-how to make a splash in the prediction markets arena.
It also has the necessary regulatory approvals, including Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) authority, to swiftly enter the prediction markets industry without the need for an acquisition. FCM status, which is obtained through the National Futures Association (NFA), is crucial for regulated prediction markets.
The bank is also well-versed in the commodities landscape and dealing with the appropriate regulators, including the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal regulatory body that oversees prediction markets in this country.
“When you think about some of these activities, particularly when you look at some of the ones that are CFTC regulated, they look like derivative contract activities. And so I can certainly see opportunities where these cross into our business,” added Solomon on the conference call.
Prediction Markets, Wall Street Continue Intersecting
The yes/no derivatives industry is young, but that youth isn’t preventing it from increasingly intersecting with the world of traditional finance. Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), made a $2 billion investment in Polymarket last year.
Additionally, a slew of brokerage firms are entering the industry, and market makers that have long served Wall Street clients are among the primary liquidity providers on platforms such as Kalshi. Some experts see expanding use cases for prediction markets for hedge funds and institutional investors looking to trade around discrete economic news or those looking to hedge positions established in traditional form. For his part, Solomon is taking a pragmatic view of prediction markets.
“I think there’s a lot of reason to be excited and interested in these things, but the pace of change might not be as quick and as immediate as some of the pundits are talking about in both of these,” said the Goldman CEO on the conference call. “But I think they’re important and real, and we’re spending a lot of time.”
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