BETS OFF Act Latest Federal Bill Targeting Prediction Markets, Trades Involving War and Terrorism
Posted on: March 17, 2026, 10:44h.
Last updated on: March 17, 2026, 10:44h.
- The BETS OFF Act joins the DEATH Bets Act in seeking to limit prediction markets
- The federal bills would exclude certain event contracts from CFTC-regulated exchanges
Congress has yet another piece of legislation to consider that involves determining what sort of trading contracts federally regulated prediction markets can facilitate.
Today, US Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX) introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act. Cleverly abbreviated as the BETS OFF Act, the statute would ban prediction markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission from allowing users to trade shares on future outcomes related to government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events “where an individual knows or controls the outcome.”
These are fundamentally corrupt markets. They are rife with insider trading, and offer incredible perverse incentives, especially inside government for government actors, to push official decision making towards their financial interests,” Murphy said this morning at a press event announcing the BETS OFF Act.
Murphy cited an example where there was a “flurry of activity” on Polymarket ahead of the US air strikes on Iran. Murphy said many of the Polymarket accounts that made tens of thousands of dollars in profits on the Iran markets had only created their prediction markets account the day before the war began.
Federal Prediction Market Legislation
Murphy and Casar’s BETS OFF Act follows the DEATH BETS Act filed earlier this month by US Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA). The Discouraging Exploitative Assassination, Tragedy, and Harm Betting in Event Trading Systems Act similarly seeks to prohibit CFTC-regulated prediction markets from listing contracts involving war, death, and similar activities.
Earlier this month, US Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Andy Kim (D-NJ) filed the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act, which would exclude sports event contracts from CFTC markets.
Democratic lawmakers in Congress are opposed to President Donald Trump’s hand-picked CFTC chair, Michael Selig, supporting what he believes to be “innovation” among prediction markets. While trades involving war, terrorism, and assassination remain excluded under CFTC rules, Polymarket, which has been regulated by the federal financial agency since late 2025, has continued to engage in such markets without penalty.
Prediction market leader Kalshi caused controversy when it voided bets on when Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer be in power. Kalshi ruled that since the ayatollah was assassinated, the event outcome resolved to the price before he was killed because of a “death carveout.”
“Our legislation is pretty simple. It simply says that these markets cannot allow people to make bets on government decision-making and other instances where there is one single individual who controls and knows the outcome of a market,” Murphy said.
‘Corruption Crisis’
Casar said the US is facing a “corruption crisis” under Trump.
After promising to ‘drain the swamp,’ Trump has ushered in the most corrupt administration in American history,” Casar declared.
Casar said the BETS OFF Act is designed to crack down on “one of the most dangerous new venues for government corruption.”
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