Roundhill Eyes Launches of Political Prediction Market ETFs

Posted on: February 14, 2026, 02:52h. 

Last updated on: February 14, 2026, 02:52h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • Fund sponsor files for six ETFs that would track domestic political prediction markets
  • The ETFs haven’t been approved as of yet
  • Roundhill is the company behind a well-known sports betting ETF

Bettors and traders focusing on political prediction markets could have new tools at their disposal for the 2026 midterm elections if a batch of exchange traded funds (ETFs) proposed by Roundhil Investments are approved.

politicians stocks
The US Capitol building. An ETF issuer filed to launch six political prediction markets ETFs. (Image: Getty Images)

In a Feb. 13 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Roundhill disclosed plans for six ETFs that would hold yes/no contracts tied to US electoral outcomes. Those are ETFs are as follows with proposed tickers in parentheses: Roundhill Democratic President ETF (BLUP), Roundhill Republican President ETF (REDP), Roundhill Democratic Senate ETF (BLUS), Roundhill Republican Senate ETF (REDS), Roundhill Democratic House ETF (BLUH), and the Roundhill Republican House ETF (REDH).

If the ETFs are approved, it could amount to good timing for Roundhill, because prior to the industry’s embrace of football derivatives, political event contracts were the major drivers of prediction markets activity. With 2026 being an election year, some operators are expecting more of the same and increases in election-related volume.

The asset manager’s SEC filing doesn’t mention specific prediction markets from which it will source contracts, but it does note it will work with Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), which is the designation necessary for companies to offer exchange-listed derivatives, including yes/no event contracts, in the US.

How Political Prediction Market ETFs Will Work

Examining the plumbing on the BLUP and REDP ETFs, should they come to market, one of those funds will essentially be worthless after the 2028 presidential race is decided, but those ETFs won’t go away after Election Day.

Instead, following a determination that the outcome of the 2028 Presidential Election has been decided, the Fund will recognize the gain or loss associated with its Democratic President Contracts tied to the 2028 Presidential Election and will invest in event contracts that settle to $1.00 in the event that the winner of the U.S. Presidential Election taking place on November 2, 2032, is a member of the Democratic Party,” according to regulatory filing. “The Fund will make the determination that the 2028 Presidential Election has been decided.”

As for the Senate ETFs, BLUS and REDS, those funds will hold event contracts tied to the parties’ odds of controlling the upper chamber after the 2026 midterms. So if the Republicans maintain their current majority, BLUS “will lose substantially all of its value,” according to the Roundhill filing. The same would be true of REDS if the Democrats gain control of the Senate.

The House ETFs, BLUH and REDH, will function in similar fashion and like the presidential ETFs, the House and Senate ETFs won’t fold after the 2026 midterms. Rather, the funds will be reorganized into 2028 election products.

Roundhill Familiar to Bettors, Investors

Plenty of gaming investors are familiar with Roundhill because it’s the issuer of the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (NYSE: BETZ) — the first ETF dedicated to online casino and sportsbook operators.

That fund, which turns six years old in June, tracks the Morningstar Sports Betting & iGaming Select Index and holds shares of well-known gaming companies, including FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG).