Polymarket Is Offering Contracts About the Future of Kalshi, Robinhood
Posted on: January 23, 2026, 01:19h.
Last updated on: January 23, 2026, 01:32h.
- Prediction market Polymarket has event contracts involving its competitors
- One Polymarket contract asks when Kalshi will cease facilitating sports event trades in Massachusetts
Polymarket, a leader in the prediction market (PM) space outside of the United States, is now taking bets on the future of its biggest US competitor, Kalshi.
By most estimates, Kalshi is the leader in the emerging prediction market space. Polymarket is its nearest rival in terms of trading worldwide, with both online platforms expanding rapidly since launching contracts involving the outcomes of sports last year.
Polymarket, however, isn’t operating in the US currently, though it’s planning a return after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets, in December granted the cryptocurrency-based PM approval. Polymarket exited the US in 2022 following a CFTC enforcement action that accused the platform of unregistered event contract activity. Polymarket paid the CFTC a $1.4 million penalty.
Kalshi’s sports offerings have put prediction markets in hot water. State attorneys general, gaming regulators, and lawmakers have called on the CFTC to order the derivatives exchanges to cease offering sports trades.
Kalshi Outlook
This week, a superior court judge in Massachusetts granted a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, ordering the prediction market to stop offering sports event contracts by today, Friday, January 23. Suffolk County Superior Court Judge Christopher Barry-Smith said requiring Kalshi to seek a sports betting license from the Massachusetts Gaming Commission (MGC) “serves the public interest.”
State gaming attorneys and judges have opined that the CFTC is far underequipped to monitor sports contracts to ensure that both the integrity of the sports and the trading exchanges remain safeguarded. With Kalshi appealing Barry-Smith’s order, Polymarket is taking bets on the platform’s future in Massachusetts.
Kalshi stops offering sports event contracts in Massachusetts by Jan. 31?” is a live contract on Polymarket. Traders think the legal saga will drag out through at least the end of the month, with “yes” shares priced at just four cents.
The odds of Kalshi ceasing sports event contracts in Massachusetts have steadily lengthened since Polymarket initiated the contract on January 20, the same day Barry-Smith handed down his ruling. Shares traded as high as 78 cents on January 21 before Kalshi said it would appeal. About $8,000 has been traded on the market in three days.
“Stops offering sports event contracts refers to any halt — whether permanent or temporary — in Kalshi’s listing, offering, acceptance, or facilitation of sports event contracts for users in Massachusetts that is intentional and not simply a result of routine operations. Delays caused by gaps between sporting events, technical problems, or other unintentional factors will not qualify,” the Polymarket rules read.
The terms additionally state that an official announcement from Kalshi saying it will stop offering sports event contracts in Massachusetts within this market’s timeframe will suffice to resolve the market, regardless of when or if the announced stop takes effect.
Prediction Market Bets on Prediction Markets
As far as Casino.org can tell, Polymarket is the first and only prediction market to date to run event contracts regarding rival prediction markets.
The first came in late November when Polymarket initiated a contract about Robinhood, another PM, self-certifying sports event contracts by March 31, 2026 (“yes” shares are trading at 71 cents). In December, Polymarket debuted a contract about when Robinhood would launch a PM through MIAXdx, a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange, by March 31 (“yes” shares trading at 61 cents).
Kalshi and Robinhood have not offered any contracts involving their competitors’ business futures.
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