Circle, Coinbase Tipped as Prediction Market Winners as Volume Heads to $1.2 Trillion
Posted on: December 30, 2025, 11:29h.
Last updated on: December 30, 2025, 11:36h.
- Clear Street sees prediction market expansion benefiting Circle and Coinbase
- Research firm estimates total addressable market could reach $14 billion by 2030, with annual volume swelling to $1.2 trillion
- Circle’s stablecoin exposure seen as pivotal in prediction market expansion
Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) and Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) could be long-term winners as prediction markets move toward $1.2 trillion in annual volume.
That’s the take of Clear Street, which estimates the total addressable market for yes/no exchanges will reach $14 billion by 2030, with yearly turnover of $1.2 trillion, well ahead of the $440 million in revenue and $47 billion in volume likely to be posted this year.
The research firm notes some near-term prediction market forecasts may be prone to hope and hype, thus overstating the industry’s short-term outlook, but longer-ranging estimates may prove too conservative because there’s not enough acknowledgement regarding the value of historical and real-time data generated by event contract exchanges.
Clear Street adds that prediction markets operators could morph into big data and analytics purveyors over the long term — an evolution that could expand their total addressable market while potentially increasing use cases and compelling more professional market participants to embrace event contracts.
Breakthrough Year Coming for Prediction Markets
Clear Street analyst Owen Lau said 2026 will be a “breakthrough year” for prediction markets with increased competition and surging revenue expected to be two industry hallmarks in the new year.
Lau believes Circle and Coinbase are positioned as prediction market winners because both companies have the compliance competencies, infrastructure, and settlement services integral to operating in this arena. Additionally, both firms have established, expansive customer bases, and some of those clients are already displaying prediction market enthusiasm.
Specific to Circle, the company is the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, the second-largest such digital currency behind only Tether. Stablecoins such as USDC are already heavily used on event contract platforms because those digital currencies allow for account funding and settlement efficiencies.
Lau notes that Circle’s liquidity infrastructure and treasury offerings have the potential to scale in unison with prediction markets.
Coinbase Could Be Prediction Market Goliath
Coinbase, which Clear Street named as one of its top three fintech picks for 2026, recently announced its prediction market entry by way of a partnership with Kalshi, cementing that overture with the acquisition of The Clearing Company.
Clear Street highlights Coinbase as a clear winner under the aforementioned analytics/data evolution scenario because the cryptocurrency brokerage firm has the compliance know-how, existing user base, and technology needed to capitalize on that progression.
In its 2026 Crypto Market Outlook, Coinbase said a “transformative period” is afoot for prediction markets, and while it didn’t dive deeply into a company-specific analytics/data scenario, it did say that as the yes/no industry evolves, fragmentation risk increases, and that could spur the need for curated aggregation offerings.
No comments yet