PREDICT Act Latest Congressional Bill Seeking to Limit Congress’ Participation in Prediction Markets
Posted on: March 25, 2026, 09:48h.
Last updated on: March 25, 2026, 09:52h.
- The PREDICT Act would ban members of Congress from certain prediction markets
- Congress has a slew of bills related to prediction markets
- The GOP-controlled Congress might be unwilling to pass any of the proposals
Another day, another bill filed in the United States Congress that deals with prediction markets.
The US gaming industry is seemingly displaying its lobbying prowess in the nation’s capital, as federally regulated prediction markets have become a buzzword on Capitol Hill. The financial trading exchanges, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, ventured into the world of sports event contracts last year. Their inclusion of outcomes involving politics and world events has also prompted congressional action.
The latest bill comes from US Reps. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) and Adrian Smith (R-AZ). Dubbed the PREDICT Act, or the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act, the statute proposes excluding members of Congress and their staffers from participating in prediction market contracts related to political events and policy decisions.
The American people are tired of politicians using their influence for personal gain, and the rise of prediction markets has made those concerns even more relevant. In recent months, we’ve seen instances of little-known traders making massive profits on events ranging from war with Iran to how long a government shutdown will last, raising necessary questions about the use of inside information,” Budzinski said in a statement.
“Serving the American people is a privilege, not a pathway to profit,” Smith added. “Our commonsense, bipartisan bill will give Americans confidence that the decisions of their elected officials are guided by merit, not personal profit.”
Prediction Market Controversies
Budzinski and Smith’s legislation comes after a series of suspicious trading activity on leading prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, involving the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran and the regime’s response. DC insiders have allegedly been behind some of the prediction market activity, using their privileged information for their personal financial gain.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell shares of future outcomes. Shares of accurate predictions are redeemed at $1 each.
Investigations have determined that there were thousands of perfectly timed trades on when Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer be in power. The trades profited the traders millions of dollars.
Many Bills, Long Odds
The PREDICT Act is similar to the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, introduced in January by US Rep. Ritchie Torres (R-NY), though not as cleverly titled. There are many other prediction market bills in the Capitol.
Sens. Adam Schiff (R-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) are behind the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, a bill to prohibit prediction markets from offering contracts involving sporting outcomes. Schiff is also a sponsor of the DEATH BETS Act with Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA), a bill to exclude prediction market contracts involving war, death, and similar activities.
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX) are behind the BETS OFF Act, a bill to prohibit prediction market events involving government actions, terrorism, war, and assassination. Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Andy Kim (D-NJ) have authored the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act, which proposes federal guardrails for CFTC-regulated markets.
The GOP-controlled Congress, however, might not be inclined to pass any of the prediction market measures. That’s because President Donald Trump is largely supportive of the financial instruments, with his hand-picked CFTC Chair Mike Selig saying the administration supports “lawful innovation in these markets.”
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