President Donald Trump’s impeachment odds are surging, as the US House of Representatives moves toward passing at least one article of impeachment in his first full term.
The PredictIt market asking, “Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?” has “Yes” shares at 62 cents. That’s up from 33 cents 90 days ago – a nearly 88 percent surge.
The movement is a result of an intelligence whistleblower complaint that claims Trump pressured recently elected Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate former VP Joe Biden’s son Hunter’s business dealings in the country. Hunter’s private equity firm received $3.4 million from Ukrainian gas company Burisma Holdings while then-VP Biden was the Obama administration point man to Ukraine during the county’s 2014 revolution.
Hunter Biden was also paid $50,000 a month to sit on the Burisma Holdings board of directors. Prior to his call with the Ukrainian leader, Trump froze $400 million in aid. It has since been released to the country.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) is set to announce a formal impeachment inquiry later today.
The president confirms he talked about Joe Biden – a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate – with Zelensky, but is adamant didn’t use his office’s power wrongfully.
“I have authorized the release tomorrow of the complete, fully declassified and unredacted transcript of my phone conversation with President Zelensky of Ukraine,” Trump tweeted this afternoon in response to growing impeachment calls by House Democrats.
You will see it was a very friendly and totally appropriate call. No pressure, and unlike Joe Biden and his son, NO quid pro quo! This is nothing more than a continuation of the Greatest and most Destructive Witch Hunt of all time!”
Though political bettors feel there’s a good chance Trump will indeed be impeached, that doesn’t mean the president is removed from office. Impeachment refers only to the US House passing by a simple majority an article of impeachment, which moves the process to the Senate.
The PredictIt market asking, “Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment in his first term?” has “Yes” shares at just nine cents. Democrats control the House 235-199-1, while Republicans have a 53-45-2 majority in the Senate.
If the US House passes an impeachment article, a trial is carried out in the Senate, with the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presiding over the process. Each political side makes its case, at which time the full Senate acts as the jury. If two-thirds of the upper chamber finds the president guilty of a high misdemeanor, felony, or treason, the commander-in-chief is removed from office.
“Now is the time to act,” Rep. John Lewis (D-Georgia) said today. “The time to begin impeachment proceedings against this president has come. To delay or to do otherwise would betray the foundation of our democracy.”
Odds Downplay Impeachment
Overseas oddsmakers are taking wagers on a potential Trump impeachment, and bet365 has the odds currently at 2/1 – implied 33.33 percent chance. A guilty verdict from the Senate is longer at 14/1 – implied 6.67 percent chance.
As for the 2020 general election, Trump remains the frontrunner at even money. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) is next at 7/2, and Biden third at 6/1.