Political Bettors Predict Impeachment, But Say Odds Long of President Trump Conviction

President Donald Trump has been impeached for a historic second time. But political bettors say the odds are long that’ll he’ll be convicted in the Senate.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shows the media the signed article of impeachment against President Donald Trump. It’s the House’s second time impeaching the billionaire president. (Image: AP)

The US House of Representatives yesterday voted 232-197 to impeach the president for a second time. No president in US history has previously been impeached twice.

The bipartisan impeachment charges Trump with one count of “incitement of insurrection.” Ten Republicans voting “yea.” No Democrats voted against the impeachment.

Democrats and the 10 supportive GOP lawmakers claim Trump incited the Jan. 6 storming of the US Capitol. The impeachment now moves to the Senate, where the upper chamber will, at some point, hold a trial.

Bettors successfully forecast that Trump would indeed be impeached for a second time. But they aren’t so sold on the Senate finding him guilty of the charge brought against him.

PredictIt’s market asking whether the Senate will convict Trump within the first 100 days of President-elect Joe Biden’s presidency has “yes” shares trading at 29 cents. “No” shares are the betting front-runner at 71 cents.

Trial Timeline

Biden will be inaugurated next week on Jan. 20. The 100-day timeline offered by PredictIt gives the guilty verdict deadline of April 29, 2021, at 11:50 pm ET.

For Trump to be convicted, a two-thirds majority of senators will need to find the 45th president guilty of the impeachment charge. While the Democrats took control of the Senate during the 2020 election thanks to the results of the Georgia runoff, they will only hold 50 seats, far shy of the 67 needed to convict.

The Trump trial will mark yet another first, as it will be the first time the Senate holds an impeachment hearing against a president no longer in office. Another potential first would be if he’s found guilty, as no president has ever been convicted on impeachment in the Senate.

Current Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will become Senate Minority Leader after Biden takes office, and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris becomes the 50-50 tiebreaker for Senate control. McConnell says he is no longer loyal to the current president but isn’t sure how he’ll vote in the trial.

“Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by April 29?” has “yes” shares the underdog at 37 cents.

Legal Juggernaut

Constitutional scholars have mixed views as to what power a presidential self-pardon would afford an exiting Commander-in-Chief. Trump has floated the idea of pardoning himself before leaving the White House.

Oddsmakers say there’s a roughly 40 percent chance Trump will pardon himself before Jan. 20. Presidential pardons provide immunity to an individual from related federal criminal investigations and charges.

“I think it’s a very close question whether it would ultimately be allowed to go forward, but I think there’s a chance a self-pardon might be struck down and be found to be the only limit on the pardon power,” Kristin Hucek, a former lawyer in the Justice Department’s Office of the Pardon Attorney, told Politico this week.

Trump maintains that he did not incite violence at the Capitol.

Devin O'Connor

Gaming Legislation, Politics, Casino Business, Entertainment----Devin O’Connor’s passion for politics and background in the world of pop culture television give him insight into the gaming industry backstories that often drive news these days. After graduating from Penn State University with a theater arts degree, he worked at MTV Networks/Viacom from 2005 to 2010 as a writer and producer, where his credits included Total Request Live, New Year's Eve specials, and a special featuring poker superstar Daniel Negreanu. He later moved on to the HGTV/DIY Network, where he created, wrote, and produced three series specials: That's So House Hunters, That's So 80s, and That's So 90s. Devin came on board with Casino.org in 2014. He lives in Pennsylvania, and is an avid marathoner, having completed 15 races to date. Email: devin.oconnor@casino.org

View Comments

  • If we are a country of laws, then we must have this trial and hopefully expunged this cancer from American politics. Republicans get a second chance to get this right. Will they accept responsibility and admit they supported a narcissistic sociopath that tried to damage our democracy? I wouldn’t count on it. They will do everything to deny responsibility and regain power. I do think their are 10-12 Republicans who will rise to the occasion and save their reputations.

  • LOL continuing the witch hunt is what’s right for this country? You really think this will help the country. No matter if you believe he incited people to be violent, 74 MILLION people voted for him. You think they’re just gonna forget you retroactively convict him. Such delusion

  • no self pardon

    hoping for conviction because it is the right thing to do for the country in the long run.

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Devin O'Connor