Former President Donald Trump remains the betting favorite to win the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in 2024.
The second impeachment trial against the 45th president of the United States begins tomorrow. But on the heels of the hearing, political betting markets show there’s still plenty of support for Trump in the Republican base.
PredictIt’s market asking who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination has Trump in the lead. His shares of securing the GOP’s nomination for a third time are trading at 19 cents.
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is next at 16 cents. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is third at 10 cents.
Other notables include former VP Mike Pence (nine cents), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (eight cents), and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, and Fox News host Tucker Carlson each at five cents.
Trump Regaining Support
Beginning tomorrow, Democratic House members and Trump attorneys will make their respective cases to the US Senate regarding why Trump should or shouldn’t be found guilty of “incitement of insurrection.” Democrats argue that Trump was responsible for the violent raid on the US Capitol on Jan. 6.
The odds are long that the former president will be convicted. PredictIt bettors give it just a six percent chance. A total of 67 conviction votes in the Senate are needed to bar Trump from ever holding federal office again.
“Perhaps it is this low likelihood of a conviction that has inspired some confidence in Trump’s ability to mount a comeback in 2024, as he is currently the favorite to become the Republican presidential nominee at a 15 percent chance, and sits third in our presidential winner market at seven percent, behind only Vice President Kamala Harris (20 percent) and President Joe Biden (15 percent),” Smarkets political analyst Patrick Flynn told Casino.org.
Smarkets is a betting exchange similar to PredictIt in its facilitating of peer-to-peer trading for political outcomes. Flynn added that Republican senators have been bombarded by calls from their constituents expressing opposition to the impeachment.
“As a result, those who considered convicting the former president will be fearful of their political futures in the Republican Party if they support conviction. It seems the result of the trial is likely to revert to a broadly partisan vote, where a simple majority of senators will vote to convict, but not enough to reach a supermajority,” Flynn added.
Trump Lawyers Call Impeachment ‘Political Theater’
In the lead-up to tomorrow’s impeachment trial, attorneys representing the former president filed a brief alleging that Democrats are trying to exploit the Capitol raid for their own political advantage.
“This was only ever a selfish attempt by Democratic leadership in the House to prey upon the feelings of horror and confusion that fell upon all Americans across the entire political spectrum upon seeing the destruction at the Capitol on Jan. 6 by a few hundred people,” the defense lawyers said.