Royal Baby Name: The Public Vs The Bookies
We all know the Duchess of Cambridge is expecting her third child in April, but what nobody knows is whether the new royal will be a bouncing baby boy or a girl. Naturally, the bookies are taking bets on what the little heir will be called - whatever it’s gender. But have they got their predictions right?
We’ve pitted the bookies against the wise and noble Great British public by surveying 4,000 people, to find out if the public and the bookies see eye to eye on what the tiny tot will be called. Spoiler: They don’t.
Considering that the first two royals were named George and Charlotte, it's assumed that Prince William and Kate Middleton will continue to opt for traditional names. Although there is quite a difference between the bookies' odds and what the British public thinks the names will be.
Do The Bookies Know Best?
The bookies don't seem too confident when it comes to regal boys’ names - the top three options are Arthur (11/1), Henry (15/1) and Albert (15/1).
On the other hand, the public picked a completely different top 3. James was the most popular boy’s name in our survey, with 11% of the vote (equivalent to odds of 1/9). Only 7% of the British public think the name will be Philip (1/14), with 6% going with Alexander (1/16).
The bookies seem to be more certain when it comes to girls' names. The top three potential princess names according to bookmakers are Mary (9/1), Alice (8/1) and Victoria (11/1).
The majority of the British public are unsure of the name but the top picks if it's a girl are Victoria at 11% (1/9), Elizabeth also at 11% (1/9) and Diana with 9% (1/11).
It’s worth noting that Alice and Victoria were also amongst the top three favourite names before Princess Charlotte was born.
Arthur
Alice
London Ditches Diana, East of England Backs Philip
According to the people of London, the top three most likely names if it's a girl are Victoria (11.9%), Elizabeth (9%) or Grace (7.4%). London is also one of the only regions that puts the chance of a Princess Grace above that of a Princess Diana.
Almost across the country, though, the top choice is Victoria followed by Elizabeth, except in the South West, where people think Elizabeth is the more likely choice followed by Victoria.
Respondents in the North East are pretty confident that the baby's name will be Prince James, with 15.71% of those surveyed in the region voting for that name. Their second guess is Philip at 8.57%.
Over in East Anglia, the public actually put the odds of Philip (10.66%), slightly above James (10.25%). Neither region agrees with the bookies' picks though - Arthur, Henry and Albert don’t even make the top five.
Do Women Predict Differently To Men?
The top five names for a possible princess as picked by the women of the UK, are Victoria (12%), Elizabeth (10%), Alice (9%), Diana (8%) and Alexandra (7%).
Meanwhile, the men of the UK believe a princess would be Elizabeth (11%), Victoria (10%), Diana (9%), Alexandra (5%) or Alice (4%).
Either way, the ladies of the UK could be paid out 11/1 if they bet on Victoria and are right, with gents getting 15/1 odds if they wagered on Elizabeth.
Just as the bookies are less confident about the possible name of a future prince, it appears that the men of the UK are also stumped.
The top picks for a future prince, as guessed by the men of Britain, are James (9%), Philip (8%), Charles (5%), Alexander (5%) and Edward (5%).
Ladies are a bit more confident about their picks for a prince's name, with James (12%), Alexander (7%), Philip (6%), Arthur (6%) and Henry (6%).
If either gender bet on their top guess for the prince’s name, they could get paid out at 21/1 odds.
James
Victoria
Royal Babies: A Little Crown And A Big Industry
Royal events often generate a lot of interest from bettors, with people preparing to wager on everything from if Prince Harry will shave his beard for his upcoming wedding to who will design Meghan Markle's dress.
Baby naming is always big business too. Back in 2013, betting on the name of Prince George before he was born totaled about £5 million, making it one of the largest bets on royal events.
The average punter in the UK bets between £3 - £5 on the name of the new royal baby, although some people will wager upwards of £500. Turnover also continues to rise on royal baby name wagers in 2018 thanks to the consistently traditional names picked by the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge with their first two children - this makes people feel more certain when betting on the next baby's name.
Whether it's thanks to inside information, or a true understanding of royal naming conventions, the bookies typically get it right when it comes to royal names. Bookmakers correctly predicted the odds of Will and Kate’s first child being named George, but when it came to Princess Charlotte, Alice had the better odds of 2/1 and Charlotte shifted from 6/1 down to 3/1.
Back in 1982, William Hill was taken to the cleaner's when the prince's name leaked three days before he was born. The price swiftly plummeted from 33/1 to 3/1. The bookies think that’s unlikely to happen this time around though because there have never been any leaks about Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge’s previous babies.
Even without leaks, after the birth of Princess Charlotte, who had been the odds-on favorite for several days before she was born, the bookies had to cough up over £1 million.
There are much bigger potential payouts on odds this time and far less certainty about names – whether the public or the bookies have called it right will all be revealed very soon.
Methodology: 4,000 people from around the UK were surveyed via One Poll survey.