Ever wondered how much you would have won last season if you had bet £5 on one team to win each game they played? Well we now have an answer for you
The 2014/15 Premier League and Football League season was one of the most closely contested and unpredictable campaigns in recent memory. So with all the shock results and performances which team would have won punters the most amount of money across the whole season, and why?
If you ask any punter that has a lack of knowledge of the British football league system their answer to that question would be that surely the teams that finish highest will win you the most money. Unfortunately, the bookies aren’t that stupid. Due to the odds of the higher placed teams being lower, then it is not necessarily those teams that will deliver you the biggest wins across the whole season.
How did Swansea, Stoke and Crystal Palace do so well?
Instead, you will need to look at the more mid-table placed teams that have taken a number of wins against the better teams but only suffered losses against teams they were expected to lose against. A prime example of this is the team that finished top of the overall betting returns table and that is Swansea City from the Premier League. Swansea finished 8th in the Premier League but were top of the chart giving punters a net profit of £115.20 if they bet on them every week. The reason for this is that Swansea managed to secure a number of wins against the odds. These included Manchester United away on the opening day of the season, Arsenal at home in November, Manchester United once again in the home match, and Arsenal once again at the Emirates Stadium. However, if you look at the games Swansea lost across the whole season, they rarely dropped points against teams they were expected to beat. This limited the losses of the punter.
Another fantastic example of this was Stoke City. Mark Hughes and his players finished 9th last season. Despite only managing to secure 15 winning bets compared to 23 losing bets, Stoke ended the season with a net profit for the punter of £114.10. In a similar style to Swansea, Stoke took a number of big name scalps during the season when their odds were stacked against them. These results included defeating Manchester City away, Arsenal at home, and Liverpool at home on the final day of the season. Their defeats were also suffered against teams where the odds suggested a loss was likely so the hit to the punter was not as bad as it could have been.
The Rest of The Football League
An exception to this rule is perhaps Burton Albion. Whereas Chelsea, Bournemouth, and Bristol City started to see their odds of victory slashed as the season progressed, Burton’s odds remained consistent throughout the campaign. Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink was leading his men on a relentless promotion charge but such is the uncertainty of League 2 that the bookmakers are reluctant to offer such favourable odds to one team. As a result, Burton finished the season with an incredible 28 winning bets compared to just 18 losing bets. Only Bristol City managed more winning bets with 29 during the whole season but their odds for victory were far lower than Burton’s. This meant Burton delivered a net profit of £90.20 for the punter as well as sealing the League 2 title in the process. When you compare that to Chelsea’s net profit of £1.45, Bournemouth’s of £13.15, and Bristol City’s of £69.75 then it is clear to see which division champions were the best value for money.
On the flip side, there is only one team that you would have wanted to avoid betting on and that’s Blackpool. Due to discontent off the pitch with the fans at war with the Oyston family, results plummeted on the pitch. It’s hard to think that any punter would have stuck with backing the club as performances and morale appeared to dissolve as the season progressed and finished bottom of the Championship. However, if a punter had chosen to bet on them for the entire season then they would have suffered a net loss of £158.75 coming from a staggering 42 losing bets with just 4 successful bets. To put that into perspective, the next worst team to back was Tranmere who finished bottom of League 2 and their net loss was £100.50.
Overall, Swansea would have been the best team to back with their net profit. Stoke coming the close second. They were taken to the very end by League 2 Morecambe who relied on a superb return from their away form to finish with a net profit of £101.50. Interestingly, Crewe were another team that returned well with a net profit of £92.05 despite their 20th place finish in League 1. This can mainly be attributed to the fact they were considered such underdogs when the season started and a late burst in form when the odds were really against them saw them pick up some nice wins for the punter.