Love Island Odds: Who Are The Favorites To Win So Far?

With the first-ever series of Winter Love Island reaching the halfway mark this week, and new contestants having just arrived, we’ve taken a look at the highs and lows of each islander in the villa to reveal who is currently standing as the public’s favourite to take the crown.

Take a look at the charts below to find out who are the current front-runners to win this years’ Winter Love Island 2020.


Nas and Demi

Voted the most compatible by their fellow islanders, who would have thought Nas could have found his dream girl after two weeks of being pied and friend zoned. Nas has jumped from 10% to a whopping 40% with Demi by his side, could she be his ticket to trumping all the other boys in the villa? Could they potentially be in a chance of making it through to the final? Let’s hope Casa Amor doesn’t throw a spanner in the works for them…

Love island odds


Shaughna and Callum

Shaughna and Callum were the clear front runners up until very recently, but with new Islander Demi coming in and coupling up with everyone’s favourite singleton, is their reigning streak coming to an end? Judging by the latest odds it sure looks that way, and with the pressure of Casa Amor still to come we think they could be in for a bumpy ride over the next few weeks.

Love island odds


Paige and Finley

Does it matter that Finn is only 21? We don’t think so because he has shown the most loyalty to Paige out of all the guys in the villa. The pair are now looking close to the bookie’s favourites at 16.7%. Was it their trip to the hideaway that got them there? All we know is that the couple are getting stronger and stronger, and they’re kind of cute too!

Love island odds


Siannise and Luke T

We were too quick to judge Siannise, who started off the series with a measly 5% chance of winning, according to the bookies. Enter Luke T. Once everyone got over the initial shock that Luke T wasn’t in fact Liam from The Great British Bake Off, his popularity started to rise. Luke T’s arrival, along with some fiery arguments with Rebecca, has more than doubled Siannise’s chance of winning. However, it’s looking unlikely that they’ll be able to overtake the top three power couples.


Jess and Luke M

News Just-in, Luke M is no longer a Belieber of his relationship with Jess…

Jess’ odds haven’t improved much since she entered the villa, and with her recent antics; stringing along her Justin Bieber lookalike in-favour of “big-moves Mike”, we can’t say we’re surprised to see that her odds have fallen even lower over the weekend… doesn’t she know that if he were her boyfriend he’d never let her go, he’d take her places she ain’t never been before?


The Singles

They say you should never put all your eggs in one basket, but Mike is a guy that seems to play by his own rules. Coupling up with Leanne at the start, they seemed to be one of the strongest couples in the villa, peaking with a 30% chance of winning. But with Leanne getting the ick and getting dumped from the island by Mike (did someone say karma?) Mike has been pelting his eggs at Jess ever since, even though she’s coupled up with Luke M (not cool bro). Somebody better call for back up because it looks like the villa has its very own Mr. Steal Your Girl. Is Mike just playing a game or is the ‘connection’ with Jess real? Only time and Casa Amour will tell…

After making quite the entrance and getting pulses racing, I think it’s safe to say we all thought Rebecca would be a big hit with the guys. But after causing drama with Siannise and not sticking to girl code, Rebecca’s popularity began to fizzle out, along with her short-lived romance with Connagh with a G. After dumping him and coupling up with Luke T, Siannise and Rebecca locked horns again, but with Siannise coming out on top and Rebecca left feeling ‘completely mugged off lyk.’ We thought there might be hope for Rebecca and Wallace, but the poor guy didn’t stand a chance after he made her avocado on toast and got it oh so wrong. With only a mere 5% chance of winning, let’s see if fourth times the charm for her!


Do you think Casa Amor is going to turn these odds on their heads? Tweet me your thoughts @KeatonBrooke.


Data correct as of 03 Feb 2020. Data visualisation created with Flourish.

To view our full dataset and analysis, please contact our Head of Marketing at, Paul Taylor, on – thank you.